'Absolute Mayhem': Is Saj Ahmad kidding?

Ever since Saj Ahmad begin hiding his 'analysis' behind a password, Fact Checker has ignored his rantings. His Tweets @strataero have been amusing diversions when you take the time to read them. His continuing shameless promotion of all things Boeing and rants of all things Airbus weere so over the top that how could anyone take him seriously?

His Paris Air Show post, Absolute Mayhem: 787-10, is even more over the top than his usual rantings. The 787-10 will be a good airplane, of that there is no doubt. Is the A350-1000 as bad as Saj suggests? Tell that to the airlines that are now lining up to order the airplane and the possibility that Airbus will create a production line dedicated to the demand for it.

'Absolute Mayhem'? More likely 'Absolutely Unbelievable'.

Embraer choose P&W GTF

Several news reepoirts indicate Embraer chose Pratt & Whitney's Geared Turbo Fan for the re-engining of the E-JET.

Flight International's report notes that P&W has now supplanted GE as the dominate supplier of small engines.
Saj Ahmad was engaged for years as a one-man crusader agqainst the GTF and in favor of the GE LEAP engine. What do you have to say today, Saj?

Chop, Chop, 737/777/787: Wake Up, Saj Ahmad

Saj Ahmad, the persistent Airbus-basher, continues his one-sided, skewed look at things. He doesn't mention that Boeing has 32 737 cancellations, 6 777s cancelled and 60 (that's right, 60) 787s cancelled this year.

Saj Ahmad to Everett: Charleston will snare all 787 production

Saj Ahmad has given another one of his "sage" predictions: he thinks Charleston, SC, will get all Boeing 787 production.

He's quoted in the Charleston newspaper on this prediction. He said:

Saj Ahmad is chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, a private aviation consulting firm operating in Europe and the Middle East. Ahmad said he thinks South Carolina could well become one of the country’s largest aerospace manufacturing hubs in the coming years. Boeing would not have invested so much in the area had it not planned on maintaining a long-term presence, and other aerospace companies will likely be drawn here as a result, he said.

While Boeing’s roots go deep in Everett, Wash., it has a spanking new production facility in Charleston and a workforce here that is trained in the latest technologies and processes. Workers here didn’t have to unlearn old ways of doing things to make this new-generation plane, he said.

That bodes well for the plant landing more and more work as Boeing expands its lines, and it could conceivably become the main assembly point for 787s in the future, he said.

“I don’t think South Carolina will be a one-trick pony,” Ahmad said. “I think there is a very real opportunity for Charleston to snare all of the 787 production.”

Fact Checker is sure IAM 751 will find this prediction of more than passing interest. Everett has the primary 787 line and the surge line, which gives Everett the ability to produce 10 787s a month. 

The "analysis" reported  by the Charleston paper is not only weird, the first part is hardly insightful--of course Boeing plans a long-term presence there.

The Everett IAM also had to fix all the problems coming out of Charleston.

Saj Ahmad and his new Strategic Aero Research still leave a lot of "analysis" behind.

Saj Ahmad is 'back,' with 'analysis' at Strategic Aero Research

After a long absence, Saj Ahmad is back with supposed "analysis" that looks more to be public relations promotions for Boeing and CFM than analysis that actually is meaningful.
Its hard to tell for sure, since he once again is using password-protected blog postings to hide what he writes, but what is in the public domain certainly lends to the conclusion that he is back to his old ways at Fleetbuzz Editorial.
His latest posting simply repeats the line promoted by Boeing that the 787 will "kill" the A330 and the claims about how much kore efficient the 787 is than the A330. From the public portion of his posting, it appears that there is no balance that would make an "analysis" meaningful.
A previous blog about CFM's win at Qantas suggests in the public portion that Pratt & Whitney is in dire shape after CFM won this competition. A blog from Aeroturbopower puts a better perspective in fewer words about what is behind the Qantas win.
Fact Checker enjoyed the time off, hoping that Ahmad might have mended bhis ways. No such luck. It looks like Fact Checker is back as well.

Boeing asks GE, RR and P&W for engine proposals on 777X

Note to "Matthew": Aspire Aviation was right all along. Boeing did ask for data from the three engine manufacturers.

Saj Ahmad quiet on P&W JetBlue win

Saj Ahmad, the unrelenting cheerleader for CFM, had nothing to say when JetBlue selected the Pratt & Whtiney GTF for its A320neo order. This was a hot competition between P&W and CFM. JetBlue leases a lot of Embraer E-190s, which are powered by GE engines, from GECAS, a sister company to CFM.

Aeroturbopower, who obviously knows something about engines and a lot more than Ahmad, delves into some technical issues between the GTF and LEAP engines. But as Fact Checker has long pointed out, facts don't seem to be important to Ahamd.

SAj Ahmad and "StrategicAero Research"

Saj Ahmad now identifies himself as being with "StrategicAero Research", whatever that is. The website for this company is http://strategicaeroresearch.com/ and initially is "Under Maintenance, Check Back Later".

The first evidence that Ahmad now uses the new name appeared 11 December in the Gulf regional newspaper "The Nation".  Ahmad's Fleetbuzz Editorial password protected website still is published.

SAj Ahmad's lack of understanding SEC rules

Fact Checker finally got a copy of Saj Ahmad's "protected" posting on the Pratt & Whtiney geared turbo fan and it is stunning in its lack of understanding.

Ahmad relies on Pratt & Whtiney including what is called "Forward Looking Statements" in the press release that are required under US securities laws to attack P&W claims on fuel efficiency.

“It comes as a surprise to see Pratt & Whitney caveat all of its fuel burn claims from once cited as "16%" to now "double digit" in its press releases”, Ahmad writes.

If he is surprised, he hasn't been reading his own writings. He has been whinging on about "double-digit" references for years.

He then repeats P&W's Forward Looking statement:

"Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or implied in forward looking statements include changes in the health of the global economy and the strength of end market demand in the aerospace industry; as well as company specific items including the ability to achieve cost reductions at planned levels; challenges in the design, development, production and support of advanced technologies including this engine, and new products including the engine discussed in this press release; and delays and disruption in delivery of materials and services from suppliers."

“Why else would such a forward looking statement contain, what effectively amount to get out clauses, if the technology suite in the GTF was or is as good as Pratt & Whitney claim to be”? Ahmad writes.

This shows a remarkable lack of understanding (or worse, a willful desire to ignore) US securities laws.

This is a typical Forward Looking statement from one of the most successful companies in the world, Southwest Airlines"

 

"This website contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements are based on, and include statements about, the Company"s beliefs, intentions, expectations, and strategies for the future. Specific forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and include, without limitation, words such as "plans," "believes," "expects," "anticipates," "may," "could," "intends," "goal," "will," "should," and similar expressions and variations thereof. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual results may differ materially from what is expressed in or indicated by the Company"s forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause these differences include, but are not limited to, the factors described under the heading "Risk Factors" in the Company's most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K, and in other filings, the press releases and materials contained on this website. The Company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events, or developments, except as required by federal securities laws."

There is very similar language between Southwest and P&W.

If this example is not enough, then look at the Forward Looking statement of Boeing and note the similarities between the statements. Of course, Saj loves all things Boeing but this doesn't come in for the same sort of whinging directed at P&W.

"Forward-Looking Statements
This document contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.  Words such as "may," "should," "expects," "intends," "projects," "plans," "believes," "estimates," "targets," "anticipates," and similar expressions are used to identify these forward-looking statements.  Examples of forward-looking statements include statements relating to our future financial condition and operating results, as well as any other statement that does not directly relate to any historical or current fact.  Forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions, which may not prove to be accurate.  These statements are not guarantees and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially and adversely from these forward-looking statements.  Among these factors are risks related to: (1) general conditions in the economy and our industry, including those due to regulatory changes; (2) our reliance on our commercial customers, our suppliers and the worldwide market; (3) our commercial development programs, including the 787 and 747-8 commercial aircraft programs; (4) changing acquisition priorities of the U.S. government; (5) our dependence on U.S. government contracts; (6) our reliance on fixed-price contracts; (7) our reliance on cost-type contracts; (8) uncertainties concerning contracts that include in-orbit incentive payments; (9) changes in accounting estimates; (10) changes in the competitive landscape in our markets; (11) our non-U.S. operations, including sales to non-U.S. customers; (12) potential adverse developments in new or pending litigation and/or government investigations; (13) customer and aircraft concentration in Boeing Capital Corporation's customer financing portfolio; (14) changes in our ability to obtain debt on commercially reasonable terms and at competitive rates in order to fund our operations and contractual commitments; (15) realizing the anticipated benefits of mergers, acquisitions, joint ventures, strategic alliances or divestitures; (16) the adequacy of our insurance coverage to cover significant risk exposures; (17) potential business disruptions related to physical security threats, information technology attacks or natural disasters; (18) work stoppages or other labor disruptions; (19) significant changes in discount rates and actual investment return on pension assets; and (20) potential environmental liabilities".

While Saj Ahmad disses GTF, Time magazine honours it

Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz has renewed the long-running attack on the Pratt & Whitney GTF, returning to his private postings but issuing inflammatory headlines and Tweets. In his latest, Ahamd, the "analyst" without a public CV, claims concerns continue with the GTF.
In the meantime, Time magazine honoured the engine as one of the 50 best inventions in 2011. Time has been doing this list for years.
With Ahmad's post returning to "protected" status, there is no way to know if he talks about the challenges CFM is having with the LEAP-X engine. Or is it possible to know if Ahmad talks about the concerns the industry has about the exoctic materials for the LEAP-X that are used to try and meet the GTF fuel economy.
How about making this post public, Saj?

Saj Ahmad: All mouth and no trousers

Saj Ahmad resurfaced in recent weeks, showing a complete lack of "analysis", but resorting to invective and insults instead of providing any rational or rationale for his positions.
He started with insults for John Leahy of Airbus, followed by a remarkable display of hypocrisy over the A350.
His latest is over scruitiny of A350 delays, with the question why the delays are receiving the same attention as those of the Boeing 787.
Never mind that Airbus is owning up to delays well in advance of consturction of the first A350.
Boeing rolled out the 787 and said the first flight would be two months later.
As further delays were revealed, led mostly by Jon Ostrower of Flightblogger, but also by JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and some other key analysts, who was the biggest denier? None other than Fleetbuzz Editorial and Saj Ahmad.
Ahmad was the biggest denier of delays for the 747-8.
Boeing denied delays all the time and Ahmad was the biggest denier of them all.Also, the 787 scruitiny began as roll-out neared.
This makes his latest missive all the more hilarious.

Saj Ahmad back to his insulting ways

NO comment from Fact Checker is needed.

FleetBuzz FleetBuzz Editorial

@

@vumi10 Typical cop-out from armchair expert. Do one, #tool

11 Nov

FleetBuzz FleetBuzz Editorial

@

@vumi10 Funniest #shit I ever seen! Bwhahahaha!!! #A340 & "efficient" #oxymoron if there ever was one. #A340 = #craptacular.

Saj Ahmad finally publishes a public post--with no analysis

Saj Ahmad, the self-proclaimed "analyst", finally published a public post  after more than a year. No wonder he keeps his posts private. This post about the A340 termination and A350 delay was completely absent of any analysis or information. It was a self-congratulatory bloviating piece of opinion.

A true "analyst" would provide information and analysis about why Airbus did what it did. Nothing.

There still is no information about his CV that gives anyone any basis on which to determine his credentials.

Ahmad's "About":

About

FleetBuzz Editorial.com is a private intelligence and analysis resource for the aerospace, airline and aviation industries.
Do not ask for a password to the content because you won’t be given one.
Strictly by invitation only.

Saj Ahmad is back with his snide comments

After a long and blessed absence, Saj Ahmad--the "analyst" without any discernable CV--is back with his snide comments.

Instead of offering useful commentary, Ahmad is up to his old tricks of trashing Airbus:

"Will @Airbus John Leahy follow thru on promise he made to shoot himself now that A350-900 is delayed? @qatarairways CEO might be 1st to it!"

"Time To Kill Off The Waste-Of-Time Airbus A350-800"

These pointless, snide comments provide no useful "analysis" and certainly no facts.

When is Ahmad going to actually provide useful comment for all of us to read?

Where is Saj Ahmad about Embraer 2,000nm concept?

According to Flight International and Merrill Lynch's aerospace analyst Ron Epstein, Embraer is planning on a new airplane with 2x3 seating and 2,000nm range.

These are both elements Ahmad has bleated about for two years with the CSeries (even though he constantly misrepresents the CSeries range capability).

Where is he on the Embraer concept? Silent, just like he is silent on Boeing's No Launch Operator for the 737RE.

What's that game, Where's Waldo?

Where's Saj?

Speaking of no launch operator, where's Saj Ahmad?

For the past two years, that sage "analyst" Saj Ahmad complained bitterly that Bombardier didn't have a launch operator for its CSeries.

Neither does Boeing for the 737 re-engine. American Airlines doesn't want the plane until 2018 and Boeing planes to introduce the 737RE in 2016. Boeing doesn't want to be the first to operate the 737RE.

Where's Saj? Awfully quiet, that's where. Not a peep.

Saj Ahamd twists facts, again

Saj Ahamd, the self-proclaimed aviation analyst without a C.V. that is available to see his credentials, is at it again.

In a tweet he once more tries to perpetuate that the current CSeries was launched in 2004 and 2008 is a re-launch. The 2004 version was a similar but different design using old engines and old materials. Bombardier withdrew this design from the market and in 2008 launched the current design, using advanced materials, an advanced engine and larger capacity.

And, as usual, Ahamd selectively chooses the "facts" to fit his irrational hatred of the CSeries. While he perpetuates the myth that the current CSeries does not have trans-continental US range (despite the fact that the Bombardier website clearly shows a 2,950nm range for the extended range version), while Ahmad points to the 2004 press release to bolster his "case" about short range, the headline in that very release and the text point to the CSeries trans-continental range. If this self-promoting analyst-without-C.V. is going to use the 2004 press release to perpetuate his myths, then he has to drop his myth about the range and rely on the same press release that headlines trans-continental range.

The duplicity is there for all to see.

And then there is his next Tweet, "A320 consumes 10-15% more fuel than 737", linking to an article--but neglecting to add that in the very same sentence, the reporter includes that Airbus disputes the figure.

Once more this self-proclaimed analyst-without-C.V. selectively chooses his "facts".

Saj Ahmad: the "analyst" who can't make up his mind

"...the market penetration for new A320neo’s will be high,” said Saj Ahmad Chief Analyst at FBE Aerospace London.--Khaleej Times, 24 June, 2011.


"Airbus A320neo may be scapped." Fleetbuzz Editorial, 5 April, 2011.


"The fact that a big Asian airline has decided to agree in principle to commit to the CSeries should alleviate concerns about Bombardier's ability to market and sell the airplane, particularly when Airbus and Boeing combined have over 4,000 A320s and 737s yet to be delivered," said Saj Ahmad, a chief analyst at FBE Aerospace.--Wall Street Journal, 21 June, 2011.

This is the first nice thing Ahmad has ever said about the CSeries. Who knows--maybe hell will freeze over after all.

Covertly promoting himself: Saj Ahmad does email campaign

Fact Checker learned that Saj Ahmad, the self-promoting "analyst who doesn't tell anyone what his credentials are, endlessly promotes himself by sending journalists an unending stream of long unsolicited comments on a never-ending series of topics, ranging from maintenance, repair and overall to one of his favourite bashing targets, the A350. (Fact Checker was shocked, mind you, shocked when he recently had something nice to say about the Bombardier CSeries following the order by Korean Air Lines. If there is anything Ahmad hates worse than Airbus, it is Bombardier.)


Given his long unsolicited and frequent missives, you have to wonder how he has time to be an analyst (for money, that is).

More myth-busting for Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz

It's time for some more myth-busting of Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz.There's so much fodder--where to begin?

In a blog posting 13 October 2010, Ahmad said,“While Airbus seems poised to push ahead with re-engining the A320 family, more likely because it has no choice or money to go with a more comprehensive update due to its cash commitments on the A380, A350 and A400M  - it is likely that Boeing will sit on the sidelines to come up with something as game-changing for the narrowbody market in the same way as the 787 has been a game-changer for the widebody market.To that end, the relationship that Boeing has with CFM International as well as the room for improvement on the current CFM56-7BE engine, Airbus could find itself saddled with a GTF engine that delivers less than 9% better fuel burn while incurring $2 billion or more for that privilege and Boeing could achieve the same without a new engine, thereby increasing commonality for operators and keeping the costs down. That is far more of an incentive for buyers than is Airbus’ proposals and it resonates because we haven’t exactly seen a queue of customers banging on Airbus’ door to get the GTF engine given that it is still laden with performance issues that Pratt & Whitney simply chooses not to want to discuss. One only looks at the pathetic sales of the CSeries to see that the GTF is as big a problem as the airplane and that’s why airlines won’t buy it.”  

Fact: Ahmad comes up with "less than 9%" out of thin air, or at least he doesn't cite any source for this claim. Airbus said over and over the A320neo uses up to 15% less fuel, with 3.5% coming from the sharlets. This means 12.5% comes from the engine.

More: EADS has a cash balance of more than 11 billion euros. That's a lot more than Boeing has, and Saj continually boosts the idea Boeing will proceed with a new airplane to replace the 737. If EADS doesn't have the cash required for a new airplane, what about his favourite company?

More: where does Ahmad come up with "Boeing could achieve the same without a new engine...."? No facts, no sources, just another thin-air claim. Even Boeing doesn't make this claim.

More: P&W "doesn't want to discuss" performance issues? P&W has frequently discussed performance issues.

More: All A320neo orders so far have been for the GTF. The fact is, Saj, that the customers aren't lining up for the Leap-X.

Performance and the GTF. In Chapter 3 of the Saj Ahmad/Fleetbuzz Comedy Show, Ahmad persistently criticises the GTF and likes to say it hasn't flown on the CSeries. At the same time, he persistently touts the performance and fuel savings of the CFM Leap-X.

Fact: What makes this so laughable is that the CFM Leap-X hasn't flown at all and it is years behind in testing vs. the GTF. The GTF has flown on the P&W test 747 and on the A340-600 test airplane. He also dismisses the positive comments of Boeing's Mike Bair about the GTF.

A320neo: Orient Aviation has a good article talking about the neo and another talking about the GTF. In it, Tom Ballentyne quotes Airbus' Tom Williams endorsing the GTF and P&W's testing methodology. Ballentyne also quotes Lufthansa's Nico Buchholz, the head of fleet planning, about the GTF engine and the A320neo. While Ahmad continues to dismiss the neo (except when he bases the Bombardier CSeries, then the neo is the cat's meow) and the GTF, Ahmad has never interviewed Airbus or Buchholz, so he chooses to ignore their information.