'Absolute Mayhem': Is Saj Ahmad kidding?

Ever since Saj Ahmad begin hiding his 'analysis' behind a password, Fact Checker has ignored his rantings. His Tweets @strataero have been amusing diversions when you take the time to read them. His continuing shameless promotion of all things Boeing and rants of all things Airbus weere so over the top that how could anyone take him seriously?

His Paris Air Show post, Absolute Mayhem: 787-10, is even more over the top than his usual rantings. The 787-10 will be a good airplane, of that there is no doubt. Is the A350-1000 as bad as Saj suggests? Tell that to the airlines that are now lining up to order the airplane and the possibility that Airbus will create a production line dedicated to the demand for it.

'Absolute Mayhem'? More likely 'Absolutely Unbelievable'.

Saj Ahmad sucks up Boeing's fantasy

Is Saj kidding?

Is Boeing kidding?

"Mike Bair's words still resonate after ISTAT"?

Who are they kidding?

Boeing Marching To Put Airbus Out Of Business In The Twin Aisle Space? (Part One)

Posted on May 22, 2012

• Three-Part Overview
  
• Long Term Airbus / Boeing Positioning
• Airbus Overview
  
• Mike Bair’s Words Still Resonate After ISTAT

While the end of the decade is some time away, the next two-to-three years will ultimately define whether Airbus or Boeing has the better, revenue generating widebody airplane line-up.

Saj Ahmad to Everett: Charleston will snare all 787 production

Saj Ahmad has given another one of his "sage" predictions: he thinks Charleston, SC, will get all Boeing 787 production.

He's quoted in the Charleston newspaper on this prediction. He said:

Saj Ahmad is chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, a private aviation consulting firm operating in Europe and the Middle East. Ahmad said he thinks South Carolina could well become one of the country’s largest aerospace manufacturing hubs in the coming years. Boeing would not have invested so much in the area had it not planned on maintaining a long-term presence, and other aerospace companies will likely be drawn here as a result, he said.

While Boeing’s roots go deep in Everett, Wash., it has a spanking new production facility in Charleston and a workforce here that is trained in the latest technologies and processes. Workers here didn’t have to unlearn old ways of doing things to make this new-generation plane, he said.

That bodes well for the plant landing more and more work as Boeing expands its lines, and it could conceivably become the main assembly point for 787s in the future, he said.

“I don’t think South Carolina will be a one-trick pony,” Ahmad said. “I think there is a very real opportunity for Charleston to snare all of the 787 production.”

Fact Checker is sure IAM 751 will find this prediction of more than passing interest. Everett has the primary 787 line and the surge line, which gives Everett the ability to produce 10 787s a month. 

The "analysis" reported  by the Charleston paper is not only weird, the first part is hardly insightful--of course Boeing plans a long-term presence there.

The Everett IAM also had to fix all the problems coming out of Charleston.

Saj Ahmad and his new Strategic Aero Research still leave a lot of "analysis" behind.

Saj Ahmad, the Airbus-basher, and his A350 predictions: are they any good?

Saj Ahmad has a multi-year history of being a basher of all things about Airbus (except when he uses the A320neo, which he also has a history of bashing, to bash the one thing he hates ever more--the Bombardier CSeries).

All you have to do is check out Airliners.net and Google searches to see his venom toward Airbus, exceeded only by his buddy, the late Doug McVitie.

Ahmad's latest comes in an article on airlineberg.com. In it, he is quoted as follows....


“With Emirates, Etihad and launch customer for all three A350 variants, Qatar Airways, hoping that Airbus can avoid the pitfalls seen by Boeing on the 787, it appears increasingly likely that a series of crippling delays are inevitable for Airbus’ latest wide-body airplane,” said Saj Ahmad, Chief Analyst at FBE Aerospace, London."

"He said it is certain that the A350XWB airplane will be at least 18-24 months late with the subsequent A350-800 and A350-1000 models also being delayed by similar timescales."

“Airbus is still coming to terms with the problems and delays faced on the A380 programme and now with the A350 poised to slide as well, the big three Arab carriers, as well as leasing companies like DAE and ALAFCO will have to seriously consider their near-term capacity options,” Ahmad said."

On a high level, these comments may appear to be reasonable. However, his predictions that "it is certain" the A350s will be "at least 18-24" months late are awfully, to use his word, "certain." Only time will tell if this is correct, but remember that this comes from the same person who steadfastly refused to believe the Boeing 787 and the 747-8 were going to be late. Ahmad made excuses for Boeing through half the 787 delays and relented in his unremitting defence only after it became too embarrassing to defend the airplane. He followed a similar patter with the 747-8, refusing to concede delays were coming to this programme.

Although  he claims to be a sage analyst and particularly well connected to the Middle East (he boasts of his dual bases in London and the Middle East), Ahmad fails to realise that DAE Capital, the leasing company, is winding up its business and has been cancelling all its new orders. DAE doesn't care when the A350 is delivered. It will have cancelled all the orders well before the delivery date.

Will the A350 be delayed? Yes. Delivery schedules already slipped from the first half of 2013 to the second half. Will they be delayed "at least" 18-24 months, as Ahmad predicts? There is little in his history on predicting the 787 and 747-8 will be on time or that Airbus won't proceed with the A320neo programme, or that airlines and leasing companies won't buy the Pratt & Whitney geared turbo fan to give confidence that this prediction is any better than those.

The Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz Industry Comedy Show

Saj Ahmad's long-running comedy show took yet another episode today with his silly posting, "747 Intercontinental Draws First Blood Over A380 at Air China."

The Chinese flag carrier ordered five airplanes to replace ageing 747-400s and to provide VIP transport for the government. The order, which China said was sharply discounted, is also widely viewed as partial compensation for the long-delayed 787 orders at Air China.

China Southern ordered the A380 long ago. Since all orders have to be approved by the government, the proper headline should be, "Boeing at long last evens the score with the A380."