'Absolute Mayhem': Is Saj Ahmad kidding?

Ever since Saj Ahmad begin hiding his 'analysis' behind a password, Fact Checker has ignored his rantings. His Tweets @strataero have been amusing diversions when you take the time to read them. His continuing shameless promotion of all things Boeing and rants of all things Airbus weere so over the top that how could anyone take him seriously?

His Paris Air Show post, Absolute Mayhem: 787-10, is even more over the top than his usual rantings. The 787-10 will be a good airplane, of that there is no doubt. Is the A350-1000 as bad as Saj suggests? Tell that to the airlines that are now lining up to order the airplane and the possibility that Airbus will create a production line dedicated to the demand for it.

'Absolute Mayhem'? More likely 'Absolutely Unbelievable'.

Embraer choose P&W GTF

Several news reepoirts indicate Embraer chose Pratt & Whitney's Geared Turbo Fan for the re-engining of the E-JET.

Flight International's report notes that P&W has now supplanted GE as the dominate supplier of small engines.
Saj Ahmad was engaged for years as a one-man crusader agqainst the GTF and in favor of the GE LEAP engine. What do you have to say today, Saj?

Saj Ahmad sucks up Boeing's fantasy

Is Saj kidding?

Is Boeing kidding?

"Mike Bair's words still resonate after ISTAT"?

Who are they kidding?

Boeing Marching To Put Airbus Out Of Business In The Twin Aisle Space? (Part One)

Posted on May 22, 2012

• Three-Part Overview
  
• Long Term Airbus / Boeing Positioning
• Airbus Overview
  
• Mike Bair’s Words Still Resonate After ISTAT

While the end of the decade is some time away, the next two-to-three years will ultimately define whether Airbus or Boeing has the better, revenue generating widebody airplane line-up.

Saj Ahmad to Everett: Charleston will snare all 787 production

Saj Ahmad has given another one of his "sage" predictions: he thinks Charleston, SC, will get all Boeing 787 production.

He's quoted in the Charleston newspaper on this prediction. He said:

Saj Ahmad is chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, a private aviation consulting firm operating in Europe and the Middle East. Ahmad said he thinks South Carolina could well become one of the country’s largest aerospace manufacturing hubs in the coming years. Boeing would not have invested so much in the area had it not planned on maintaining a long-term presence, and other aerospace companies will likely be drawn here as a result, he said.

While Boeing’s roots go deep in Everett, Wash., it has a spanking new production facility in Charleston and a workforce here that is trained in the latest technologies and processes. Workers here didn’t have to unlearn old ways of doing things to make this new-generation plane, he said.

That bodes well for the plant landing more and more work as Boeing expands its lines, and it could conceivably become the main assembly point for 787s in the future, he said.

“I don’t think South Carolina will be a one-trick pony,” Ahmad said. “I think there is a very real opportunity for Charleston to snare all of the 787 production.”

Fact Checker is sure IAM 751 will find this prediction of more than passing interest. Everett has the primary 787 line and the surge line, which gives Everett the ability to produce 10 787s a month. 

The "analysis" reported  by the Charleston paper is not only weird, the first part is hardly insightful--of course Boeing plans a long-term presence there.

The Everett IAM also had to fix all the problems coming out of Charleston.

Saj Ahmad and his new Strategic Aero Research still leave a lot of "analysis" behind.

Saj Ahmad is 'back,' with 'analysis' at Strategic Aero Research

After a long absence, Saj Ahmad is back with supposed "analysis" that looks more to be public relations promotions for Boeing and CFM than analysis that actually is meaningful.
Its hard to tell for sure, since he once again is using password-protected blog postings to hide what he writes, but what is in the public domain certainly lends to the conclusion that he is back to his old ways at Fleetbuzz Editorial.
His latest posting simply repeats the line promoted by Boeing that the 787 will "kill" the A330 and the claims about how much kore efficient the 787 is than the A330. From the public portion of his posting, it appears that there is no balance that would make an "analysis" meaningful.
A previous blog about CFM's win at Qantas suggests in the public portion that Pratt & Whitney is in dire shape after CFM won this competition. A blog from Aeroturbopower puts a better perspective in fewer words about what is behind the Qantas win.
Fact Checker enjoyed the time off, hoping that Ahmad might have mended bhis ways. No such luck. It looks like Fact Checker is back as well.

Saj Ahmad: All mouth and no trousers

Saj Ahmad resurfaced in recent weeks, showing a complete lack of "analysis", but resorting to invective and insults instead of providing any rational or rationale for his positions.
He started with insults for John Leahy of Airbus, followed by a remarkable display of hypocrisy over the A350.
His latest is over scruitiny of A350 delays, with the question why the delays are receiving the same attention as those of the Boeing 787.
Never mind that Airbus is owning up to delays well in advance of consturction of the first A350.
Boeing rolled out the 787 and said the first flight would be two months later.
As further delays were revealed, led mostly by Jon Ostrower of Flightblogger, but also by JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and some other key analysts, who was the biggest denier? None other than Fleetbuzz Editorial and Saj Ahmad.
Ahmad was the biggest denier of delays for the 747-8.
Boeing denied delays all the time and Ahmad was the biggest denier of them all.Also, the 787 scruitiny began as roll-out neared.
This makes his latest missive all the more hilarious.

Speaking of no launch operator, where's Saj Ahmad?

For the past two years, that sage "analyst" Saj Ahmad complained bitterly that Bombardier didn't have a launch operator for its CSeries.

Neither does Boeing for the 737 re-engine. American Airlines doesn't want the plane until 2018 and Boeing planes to introduce the 737RE in 2016. Boeing doesn't want to be the first to operate the 737RE.

Where's Saj? Awfully quiet, that's where. Not a peep.

Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz: Getting it wrong on Pratt & Whitney's GTF

With Saj Ahmad's track record of getting his facts wrong, it's not surprising that he does so consistently over the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine.


Ahmad persistently writes: PW won't say definitively what the fuel and maintenance savings are for the engine. He constantly claims PW only promotes "double digit" savings. Fact: P&W CEO David Hess said in an interview with Bloomberg News that the engine saves 16% on fuel and 20% on maintenance costs. How much more definitive can you get than that?

Ahmad constantly writes that Boeing isn't interested in the GTF engine. Fact: Aircraft Technology magazine got a very different story from Mike Bair, head of the 737 future programme. Boeing likes the engine, has no concerns about its reliability and Bair says he's "glad Pratt is back in the game."Ahmad also ignores statements by Airbus' John Leahy that Airbus has no concerns about the GTF.

Ahmad writes that airlines are highly skeptical of the GTF. Fact: Airlines are very interested in the GTF. They have questions, certainly--but the same is true about LEAP-X. Flight Global has an extensive story about the considerations of both engines.

Ahmad writes that Bombardier's CSeries, which uses the GTF, was launched in 2006 (despite the fact that Bombardier itself says 2008). Fact: Flight Global has it right in a long article about the challenges to Airbus and Boeing.

Shoot the Dog, Part 1: Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz--quoting out of context

Saj Ahmad frequently quotes industry people (although there are problems with how he selectively quotes them and leaves the impression he got the quotes but in reality lifts them from other sources) but he has a history of quoting people out of context.

The most notorious example was Ahamd's "quoting" Pratt & Whitney CEO David Hess as "not impressed" with the Bombardier CSeries.

What Ahmad wrote was:

Pratt & Whitney President David Hess referred to being “disappointed” with low number of CSeries orders, six years after the program was launched – and with a delay on the program inevitable, prospects for the CSeries turning a corner are still a very distant prospect.

What Hess is reported to have said--and it is not even a direct quote--is in the 2010 Reuters article that wrote:

It was only a matter of time before the bleak and harsh reality of the CSeries weakness hit Pratt & Whitney.

Hess said he was disappointed at the surprisingly low number of orders for Bombardier's C-Series aircraft for which Pratt provides the engine.

Orders for the aircraft, which competes with Boeing's 737 and the A320 in the 100- to 149-seat segment, so far have failed to live up to expectations, totaling only about 90.
Bombardier blamed a lack of orders for the plane at the Farnborough Air Show in July on issues related to a support plan for the engine. At the Reuters summit, Hess shrugged off the complaint, calling it a "misunderstanding."

From the transcript of the interview, Hess actually said,

“I think we’re all a little disappointed that we weren’t able to complete the deals to announce orders there (at Farnborough 2009), but I’m not concerned because it’s a great airplane offering operators great economics, which is why there’s so much interest from airline customers.”

 Ahmad not only misrepresented what was actually reported, he misstated (as he always does) the CSeries timeline, saying it was six years from launch. The fact is the CSeries was launched in 2008, not 2004. In an interview with Bloomberg News, Hess said the CSeries is "a great airplane with great economics and it will sell very well."

Revealing Saj Ahmad

As noted on other pages, the persona of Saj Ahmad is a mystery. He doesn't tell anyone about his background, his professional bona fides, his previous employers or his client list.

The Montreal Gazette had an interesting article in 2010 that describes in some detail an encounter with Ahmad.

Analysis, what analysis? No presenting all sides with Saj Ahmad

Saj Ahmad tries to portray himself as presenting praise and criticism of his subject matter. He labours under illusions that his readers fall for this pretence.

In fact, Ahmad not only isn't presenting objective analysis, but rather he routinely insert gratuitous and unnecessary cheap shots at programmes he doesn't like.

For example, his recent posting about the Boeing 747-8I roll-out. In his headlines, and right up front, he takes shots at the A380. This is completely unneeded but consistent with his well-known and long-running dislike for the A380, but rather the focusing on the 747-8I rollout, he inserts the babble about the A380.

Ahmad has often pointed out that Emirates Airlines is the largest customer for the A380 with something like 90 total orders now, out of about 300 total. In this, he is correct. But so what? Ahmad fails to acknowledge, or perhaps he does not know, or perhaps he does know but doesn't care, that the Emirates business plan expansion is built around the A380 as the key. Unless Ahmad believes that Emirates is going to go out of business, the airline is going to take all the airplanes.

He also picks on the A350 constantly. Another recent post does nothing but run down the airplane, including the claim that an A350 customer believes Airbus should drop the model. But in typical Ahmad fashion, he makes this sweeping statement with absolutely no supporting evidence and for all anyone knows he is making this up. If this were true statement, Ahmad should quote the airline and source so that readers could judge for themselves.

But Ahmad is famous for his anonymous statements. Long-time readers will see that about the only people he quotes directly as having talked to him are his buddies at Boeing. Quotes from Airbus, Bombardier, Pratt & Whitney, airlines and others are not identified as having been in an interview with him, but rather these are quotes in news articles readily available on the Internet. He weaves these quotes into his posts for credibility (and positions them as if he sourced them), but it there is no evidence to indicate he actually did any research to get them.

So as you read his writings, read them carefully to understand where he is--and is not--getting information contained in the posts. And then judge the credibility accordingly.

Welcome to the new Saj Ahmad Fleetbuzz Fact Checker

It's a good thing you found this site. It's time to be fact checking Saj Ahmad and FleetBuzz Editorial.

From time to time it will be necessary to fact-check claims, "facts" and other "information" Ahmad puts on FleetBuzz Editorial. His history demonstrates a disconnect that is mind boggling.

Be sure to check out the tabs across the top of the page. This will get you started.