Saj Ahmad finally publishes a public post--with no analysis

Saj Ahmad, the self-proclaimed "analyst", finally published a public post  after more than a year. No wonder he keeps his posts private. This post about the A340 termination and A350 delay was completely absent of any analysis or information. It was a self-congratulatory bloviating piece of opinion.

A true "analyst" would provide information and analysis about why Airbus did what it did. Nothing.

There still is no information about his CV that gives anyone any basis on which to determine his credentials.

Ahmad's "About":

About

FleetBuzz Editorial.com is a private intelligence and analysis resource for the aerospace, airline and aviation industries.
Do not ask for a password to the content because you won’t be given one.
Strictly by invitation only.

Saj Ahmad is back with his snide comments

After a long and blessed absence, Saj Ahmad--the "analyst" without any discernable CV--is back with his snide comments.

Instead of offering useful commentary, Ahmad is up to his old tricks of trashing Airbus:

"Will @Airbus John Leahy follow thru on promise he made to shoot himself now that A350-900 is delayed? @qatarairways CEO might be 1st to it!"

"Time To Kill Off The Waste-Of-Time Airbus A350-800"

These pointless, snide comments provide no useful "analysis" and certainly no facts.

When is Ahmad going to actually provide useful comment for all of us to read?

Saj Ahmad, the Airbus-basher, and his A350 predictions: are they any good?

Saj Ahmad has a multi-year history of being a basher of all things about Airbus (except when he uses the A320neo, which he also has a history of bashing, to bash the one thing he hates ever more--the Bombardier CSeries).

All you have to do is check out Airliners.net and Google searches to see his venom toward Airbus, exceeded only by his buddy, the late Doug McVitie.

Ahmad's latest comes in an article on airlineberg.com. In it, he is quoted as follows....


“With Emirates, Etihad and launch customer for all three A350 variants, Qatar Airways, hoping that Airbus can avoid the pitfalls seen by Boeing on the 787, it appears increasingly likely that a series of crippling delays are inevitable for Airbus’ latest wide-body airplane,” said Saj Ahmad, Chief Analyst at FBE Aerospace, London."

"He said it is certain that the A350XWB airplane will be at least 18-24 months late with the subsequent A350-800 and A350-1000 models also being delayed by similar timescales."

“Airbus is still coming to terms with the problems and delays faced on the A380 programme and now with the A350 poised to slide as well, the big three Arab carriers, as well as leasing companies like DAE and ALAFCO will have to seriously consider their near-term capacity options,” Ahmad said."

On a high level, these comments may appear to be reasonable. However, his predictions that "it is certain" the A350s will be "at least 18-24" months late are awfully, to use his word, "certain." Only time will tell if this is correct, but remember that this comes from the same person who steadfastly refused to believe the Boeing 787 and the 747-8 were going to be late. Ahmad made excuses for Boeing through half the 787 delays and relented in his unremitting defence only after it became too embarrassing to defend the airplane. He followed a similar patter with the 747-8, refusing to concede delays were coming to this programme.

Although  he claims to be a sage analyst and particularly well connected to the Middle East (he boasts of his dual bases in London and the Middle East), Ahmad fails to realise that DAE Capital, the leasing company, is winding up its business and has been cancelling all its new orders. DAE doesn't care when the A350 is delivered. It will have cancelled all the orders well before the delivery date.

Will the A350 be delayed? Yes. Delivery schedules already slipped from the first half of 2013 to the second half. Will they be delayed "at least" 18-24 months, as Ahmad predicts? There is little in his history on predicting the 787 and 747-8 will be on time or that Airbus won't proceed with the A320neo programme, or that airlines and leasing companies won't buy the Pratt & Whitney geared turbo fan to give confidence that this prediction is any better than those.

The Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz Industry Comedy Show

Saj Ahmad's long-running comedy show took yet another episode today with his silly posting, "747 Intercontinental Draws First Blood Over A380 at Air China."

The Chinese flag carrier ordered five airplanes to replace ageing 747-400s and to provide VIP transport for the government. The order, which China said was sharply discounted, is also widely viewed as partial compensation for the long-delayed 787 orders at Air China.

China Southern ordered the A380 long ago. Since all orders have to be approved by the government, the proper headline should be, "Boeing at long last evens the score with the A380."

Watch Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz complain about ILFC GTF order

International Lease Finance Corp. announced a MOU for 100 A320neos, selected the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan for at least 60 of them.

Watch Saj Ahmad complain about and dismiss the order for the GTF. He has nothing good to say about this engine and makes excuses to criticize it. Note that his favorite engine, the LEAP-X, so far hasn't been ordered. (Ahmad has yet another fawning Leap-X article, "Ahead of the Curve.")

Also watch for Ahmad to use this order to criticize the Bombardier CSeries. It doesn't matter that ILFC did NOT order the A319neo (which is heavier than the CSeries and not as economical) but confined the orders to the A320 and A321.

The press release from Airbus:

ILFC selects 100 A320neo Family aircraft

Strong endorsement for the industry’s benchmark eco-efficient single-aisle aircraft

The world’s premier aircraft leasing company, ILFC, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding for 100 A320neo Family aircraft, comprising 75 A320neo and 25 A321neo types. ILFC becomes the first customer for the A321neo, the largest member of the A320neo Family. In a separate agreement, Pratt & Whitney has been selected by ILFC to power at least 60 A320neo Family aircraft.

The A320neo incorporates new more efficient engines and large wing tip devices called, "Sharklets" which together deliver up to 15 percent in fuel savings. This represents some 3,600 tonnes less CO2  per aircraft, per year. In addition, the A320neo provides a double-digit reduction in NOx emissions and reduced engine noise.

In parallel with this order for the A320neo, ILFC will terminate its purchase agreement for ten A380s. “With 104 wide bodies on order and fewer than a dozen single aisles it makes perfect sense to rebalance our order book and position ILFC strategically on the fuel-efficient neo ,” said Henri Courpron, ILFC Chief Executive Officer.

“We are delighted to welcome ILFC as the first lessor to order the A320neo,” said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers. “As an evolution of the highly successful A320,  offering the latest in fuel saving technologies, the A320neo is a natural choice for ILFC. Indeed the A320 Family will continue to be a great asset for both lessors and airlines for the decades to come.”

“The A380 is a long term programme. Over the next twenty years we see a market of over 1,300 passenger aircraft in the very large aircraft segment. The A380 continues to win new customers and many are coming back with repeat orders.” Mr. Leahy added. “This year we’ve already won two new A380 customers and there are more queuing up