Embraer choose P&W GTF

Several news reepoirts indicate Embraer chose Pratt & Whitney's Geared Turbo Fan for the re-engining of the E-JET.

Flight International's report notes that P&W has now supplanted GE as the dominate supplier of small engines.
Saj Ahmad was engaged for years as a one-man crusader agqainst the GTF and in favor of the GE LEAP engine. What do you have to say today, Saj?

Saj Ahmad got it wrong (again) on Pratt & Whitney GTF

Saj Ahmad's 10 Aug 2010, "analysis" via GLG (through Google News) is so laughable it deserves to be reproduced in its entirety. Fact Checker's Fact Checks follow.


Summary
Pratt & Whitney may end up a big loser if either re-engining doesn’t happen or if it is blocked out on a new narrowbody. 

 Analysis

1. CFM International is under pressure to find another platform for the LEAP-X engine, but being aligned with the COMAC C919 means that they will have less to worry about than Pratt & Whitney.
2. Pratt & Whitney has to develop three different fan and core engines for the Mitsubishi MRJ, the Irkut MC-21 and the Bombardier CSeries. That’s three times more risk than CFM is taking on. Further, any re-engine efforts by Airbus and Boeing would mean a fourth engine needs to be developed and would not be available until at least 2016, by Pratt & Whitney’s own admission.
3. The MC-21 will struggle to sell beyond Russia and the MRJ can still be usurped by Embraer, who are rightly playing their cards close to their chest right now. The CSeries, as we all know, has been a six year long disaster yet to turn any corner (if ever). The C919, being a different animal may not sell well, if at all beyond the Chinese border, but in sheer unit terms, it will outsell and out deliver its nearest rivals in the CSeries and MC-21 combined.
4. If Boeing re-engines the 737, the fact that the LEAP-X engine can fit with less headaches (and cost) than previously thought, Pratt & Whitney would be isolated from one of the big two OEMs. It cannot hope to recoup its engine investments on the marginalised MRJ-MC-21-CSeries triumvirate. Even if Pratt & Whitney is selected by Airbus (who want the GTF engine through the IAE consortium), they will be pitted directly against the LEAP-X. There are hardcore A320 customers who will not operate anything other than CFM engines – for Pratt & Whitney to make them switch will be an arduous task if not outright miraculous since the LEAP-X exists.
5. Pratt & Whitney’s capital outlay for (potentially) four new engines against one CFM engine will be difficult to cover, especially if within a decade the move to a clean sheet replacement emerges – does Pratt & Whitney have the financial and engineering resources to partake? Probably, but that doesn’t mean they can deliver – the woeful PW4098 and PW6000 engines are proof of that.
6. And while Pratt & Whitney’s partner in the IAE consortium, Rolls-Royce, continues to deride the benefits of the (essentially four decade old) geared turbofan design, the U.K engine maker is believed to favour the airline view of going toward a new narrowbody design ahead of re-engining the current A320 and 737 families.
7. Pratt & Whitney is certainly back into the market and has made its presence felt, but the love isn’t being shared by everyone in the industry. The company is already dead in the large airplane market and its success in the narrowbody market is at the mercy of its competitors and their offerings.
8. With CFM International at relative ease knowing that the C919 will be a hot seller post-Zhuhai Air Show, Pratt & Whitney may yet be marginalised all over again because of its alignment to products whose own longevity is questionable.

Fact Checker's Fact Checks

Going down Ahmad's "analysis" point-by-point:

Summary: Airbus has more than 300 orders for the A320/321neo and so far every customer who has chosen an engine has selected the Pratt & Whitney GTF. With Boeing putting off proceeding with a new airplane for another year or two, there is little to worry about for Pratt. Boeing says it likes what it sees in the GTF.

1. CFM "has less to worry about than Pratt". This is another of Ahmad's fitting the situation to suit his purposes. As another one of Fact Checker's posts revealed, Ahmad runs hot and cold on C919 depending on his point of the day.
2. Pratt's GTF core is scalable; Ahmad completely overstates the risk. Furthermore, one needs to remember that nothing Ahamd has written suggests he has talked with any independent, knowledgeable engineers--rather, it seems his information is derived from his small circle of nay-sayers.
3. The MC-21 has sold to Malaysia and in fact has more sales than the C919. Ahmad once again gets his facts wrong on the CSeries launch date: it was launched in 2008; 2010 minus 2008 is, by anyone's math except Ahamd's, two years not six. Ahmad also wrote the C919 will sell well at least within China. Keep this thought in mind.
4. "Pratt won't make CFM customers switch to GTF because Leap-X is available." Don't count on this.
5. Sheer speculation that, in fairness to Ahmad, will takes years to provie right or wrong.
6. Considering this had been in the press for months before Ahmad wrote this "analysis", this is hardly a sage opinion.
7. This is a baffling statement that defies rationality or fact checking.
8. "The C919 will be a hot-seller post Zhuhai Air Show". See Fact Checker's previous post in which Ahmad ran down the C919 just 30 days later. Also, the C919 had disappointing sales at the Zhuhai air show in November (only 55 firm orders) and none since.
   

Indigo, Lufthansa validate PW GTF, throwing out Saj Ahmad's persistent (and unsupported) criticisms

Indigo Airlines last week announced an order for 300 P&W GTF engines for its previously announced order of 150 Airbus A320neos and yesterday Luftansa announced that it selected the GTF for its order for 30 neos.

This puts to rest the persistent (and unsupported) criticism by Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz Editorial about the GTF.
Here is the press release about the Lufthansa order and for the Indigo order.


Jon Ostrower had a story last week about the Indigo order.

While Ahmad continues to whinge on about Pratt & Whitney "double digit" fuel savings and his allegations that P&W isn't specific about fuel and cost savings, CEO David Hess last week was widely quoted from the media day about 16% fuel savings and 20% maintenance costs savings.

Ahmad's long-standing (and unsupported) criticism about the GTF is amply illustrated in this laughable GLG posting of his (which was largely replicated on Fleetbuzz Editorial) from April 2010.

Fact Check has no doubt that Ahmad will find a way to fault these two orders. But it's clear the industry is endorsing the GTF, regardless of Ahmad's past (unsupported) bias against the engine.

Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz: Getting it wrong on Pratt & Whitney's GTF

With Saj Ahmad's track record of getting his facts wrong, it's not surprising that he does so consistently over the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine.


Ahmad persistently writes: PW won't say definitively what the fuel and maintenance savings are for the engine. He constantly claims PW only promotes "double digit" savings. Fact: P&W CEO David Hess said in an interview with Bloomberg News that the engine saves 16% on fuel and 20% on maintenance costs. How much more definitive can you get than that?

Ahmad constantly writes that Boeing isn't interested in the GTF engine. Fact: Aircraft Technology magazine got a very different story from Mike Bair, head of the 737 future programme. Boeing likes the engine, has no concerns about its reliability and Bair says he's "glad Pratt is back in the game."Ahmad also ignores statements by Airbus' John Leahy that Airbus has no concerns about the GTF.

Ahmad writes that airlines are highly skeptical of the GTF. Fact: Airlines are very interested in the GTF. They have questions, certainly--but the same is true about LEAP-X. Flight Global has an extensive story about the considerations of both engines.

Ahmad writes that Bombardier's CSeries, which uses the GTF, was launched in 2006 (despite the fact that Bombardier itself says 2008). Fact: Flight Global has it right in a long article about the challenges to Airbus and Boeing.

Watch Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz complain about ILFC GTF order

International Lease Finance Corp. announced a MOU for 100 A320neos, selected the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan for at least 60 of them.

Watch Saj Ahmad complain about and dismiss the order for the GTF. He has nothing good to say about this engine and makes excuses to criticize it. Note that his favorite engine, the LEAP-X, so far hasn't been ordered. (Ahmad has yet another fawning Leap-X article, "Ahead of the Curve.")

Also watch for Ahmad to use this order to criticize the Bombardier CSeries. It doesn't matter that ILFC did NOT order the A319neo (which is heavier than the CSeries and not as economical) but confined the orders to the A320 and A321.

The press release from Airbus:

ILFC selects 100 A320neo Family aircraft

Strong endorsement for the industry’s benchmark eco-efficient single-aisle aircraft

The world’s premier aircraft leasing company, ILFC, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding for 100 A320neo Family aircraft, comprising 75 A320neo and 25 A321neo types. ILFC becomes the first customer for the A321neo, the largest member of the A320neo Family. In a separate agreement, Pratt & Whitney has been selected by ILFC to power at least 60 A320neo Family aircraft.

The A320neo incorporates new more efficient engines and large wing tip devices called, "Sharklets" which together deliver up to 15 percent in fuel savings. This represents some 3,600 tonnes less CO2  per aircraft, per year. In addition, the A320neo provides a double-digit reduction in NOx emissions and reduced engine noise.

In parallel with this order for the A320neo, ILFC will terminate its purchase agreement for ten A380s. “With 104 wide bodies on order and fewer than a dozen single aisles it makes perfect sense to rebalance our order book and position ILFC strategically on the fuel-efficient neo ,” said Henri Courpron, ILFC Chief Executive Officer.

“We are delighted to welcome ILFC as the first lessor to order the A320neo,” said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers. “As an evolution of the highly successful A320,  offering the latest in fuel saving technologies, the A320neo is a natural choice for ILFC. Indeed the A320 Family will continue to be a great asset for both lessors and airlines for the decades to come.”

“The A380 is a long term programme. Over the next twenty years we see a market of over 1,300 passenger aircraft in the very large aircraft segment. The A380 continues to win new customers and many are coming back with repeat orders.” Mr. Leahy added. “This year we’ve already won two new A380 customers and there are more queuing up

Shoot the Dog, Part 1: Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz--quoting out of context

Saj Ahmad frequently quotes industry people (although there are problems with how he selectively quotes them and leaves the impression he got the quotes but in reality lifts them from other sources) but he has a history of quoting people out of context.

The most notorious example was Ahamd's "quoting" Pratt & Whitney CEO David Hess as "not impressed" with the Bombardier CSeries.

What Ahmad wrote was:

Pratt & Whitney President David Hess referred to being “disappointed” with low number of CSeries orders, six years after the program was launched – and with a delay on the program inevitable, prospects for the CSeries turning a corner are still a very distant prospect.

What Hess is reported to have said--and it is not even a direct quote--is in the 2010 Reuters article that wrote:

It was only a matter of time before the bleak and harsh reality of the CSeries weakness hit Pratt & Whitney.

Hess said he was disappointed at the surprisingly low number of orders for Bombardier's C-Series aircraft for which Pratt provides the engine.

Orders for the aircraft, which competes with Boeing's 737 and the A320 in the 100- to 149-seat segment, so far have failed to live up to expectations, totaling only about 90.
Bombardier blamed a lack of orders for the plane at the Farnborough Air Show in July on issues related to a support plan for the engine. At the Reuters summit, Hess shrugged off the complaint, calling it a "misunderstanding."

From the transcript of the interview, Hess actually said,

“I think we’re all a little disappointed that we weren’t able to complete the deals to announce orders there (at Farnborough 2009), but I’m not concerned because it’s a great airplane offering operators great economics, which is why there’s so much interest from airline customers.”

 Ahmad not only misrepresented what was actually reported, he misstated (as he always does) the CSeries timeline, saying it was six years from launch. The fact is the CSeries was launched in 2008, not 2004. In an interview with Bloomberg News, Hess said the CSeries is "a great airplane with great economics and it will sell very well."

Saj Ahmad at Fleetbuzz gets his facts wrong again and again and again

There is just no end to the number of times Saj Ahmad gets his facts wrong:

Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan is a frequent target. He recently and perpetually claims Boeing has no interest in the engine. This is just flat-out wrong, wrong, wrong. Boeing is very interested in the engine and is holding close discussions with Pratt to power the replacement aeroplane for the 737.

Ahmad recently cited a Boeing executive on "Pratt & Whitney's need to address questions no one seemed to be asking." This was referring to an article in Aviation Week .However, Ahmad, per his usual M.O., didn't cite the source, probably because doing so would show how selectively he chose his quote to unfairly portray what the executive truly said.

Here is the full, relevant quote from the article:

Piasecki has her own take on maturity of engine designs. For the NEO, Airbus is offering a choice of Pratt & Whitney’s PW1100G geared turbofan (GTF) or CFM International’s Leap-X, the follow-on to the CFM56-7B that powers 737NGs. Both must prove themselves, she says, especially the PW1100G, the maintenance of which she regards as an unknown. “We love the GTF technology,” she says. “We hope to be working very closely with [Pratt] to understand the technology. But nobody seems to be asking such a fundamental question, particularly as it relates to the NEO.”

While Ahmad selectively referred to the maintenance issue, he left out that Boeing "loves" the GTF technology and that LEAP-X must also "prove itself." Ahmad, who fawns over LEAP-X, doesn't at any time mention the questions over LEAP-X.

Another topic on which Ahmad always gets his "facts" wrong concerns the Bombardier CSeries. Ahmad perpetuates his myth that the CSeries does not have US trans-continental range. Once again, wrong, wrong, wrong. Straight from Bombardier's website, the range is 1,850-2,950nm, more than enough to go across the US. Ahmad always and totally ignores the ER version offered by Bombardier with the greater range. This is just another sets of falsehoods he writes. He also conveniently ignores statements by Lufthansa's Nico Buchholz supporting the CSeries and from Virgin America's David Cush that the CSeries could perform all missions, including trans-continental routes, that Virgin needed.

More information will be forthcoming.