Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz: Getting it wrong on Pratt & Whitney's GTF

With Saj Ahmad's track record of getting his facts wrong, it's not surprising that he does so consistently over the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine.


Ahmad persistently writes: PW won't say definitively what the fuel and maintenance savings are for the engine. He constantly claims PW only promotes "double digit" savings. Fact: P&W CEO David Hess said in an interview with Bloomberg News that the engine saves 16% on fuel and 20% on maintenance costs. How much more definitive can you get than that?

Ahmad constantly writes that Boeing isn't interested in the GTF engine. Fact: Aircraft Technology magazine got a very different story from Mike Bair, head of the 737 future programme. Boeing likes the engine, has no concerns about its reliability and Bair says he's "glad Pratt is back in the game."Ahmad also ignores statements by Airbus' John Leahy that Airbus has no concerns about the GTF.

Ahmad writes that airlines are highly skeptical of the GTF. Fact: Airlines are very interested in the GTF. They have questions, certainly--but the same is true about LEAP-X. Flight Global has an extensive story about the considerations of both engines.

Ahmad writes that Bombardier's CSeries, which uses the GTF, was launched in 2006 (despite the fact that Bombardier itself says 2008). Fact: Flight Global has it right in a long article about the challenges to Airbus and Boeing.

Revealling Saj Ahmad, Part 2

A reader raised a question on another post whether Saj Ahmad is or has been paid by Boeing, given his boastful Boeing-boosterism and close relationship with Boeing executives.

Has or he hasn't he? That's a good question.

Fact Checker understands from three sources that Ahmad is not and has not been paid by Boeing. Following the exchanges on the other post, which referred to GLG, Fact Checker was provided the following Biographical information that Ahmad wrote on GLG.

As you can see, at one point in the private, members-only GLG web site, he claimed he worked "with" Boeing "to devise, formulate and execute strategies."

So has Ahmad been paid by Boeing in the past? Or is Ahmad exaggerating his qualifications and experience? Fact Checker doesn't know which is the truth.

To set the background, the information referred back to Ahmad's brief "About" on the presently off-line Fleetbuzz Editorial.

To recap, from his public blog, Fleetbuzz Editorial, Ahmad posted the following:

Dislcaimer:

Fleetbuzz Editorial  is privately run and funded. This site has no affiliation, partnerships or sponsorships with any aerospace firms, airlines or brokerages. (Emphasis added.)

From his "About" on the same blog:

Having a base of operations both within Europe and the Middle East, he has accumulated extensive and varied operational experience with various major blue chip airlines and also in the financial services sector.

Ranging from passenger operations, airside/landside operations, fleet planning & scheduling, cargo operations and logistics as well as general airport security, he has had direct experience with the industry.

But on the GLG website, he wrote:

Saj Ahmad 

Aerospace/Airline Analyst
FBE Aerospace

Saj Ahmad is the Chief Aerospace Airline Analyst at Fleetbuzz Editorial. Having a base of operations both within Europe and the Middle East, Mr. Ahmad has accumulated extensive and varied operational experience with various major blue chip airlines and also in the financial services sector. Mr. Ahmad covers major global airline and commercial aerospace news along with discussion and analysis and liaises regularly with senior executives of the Boeing Company as well as working with Boeing to devise, formulate and execute new strategies. He has direct experience ranging from passenger operations, airside and landside operations, fleet planning & scheduling, cargo operations and logistics as well as general airport security. (Emphasis added.)

The GLG  website, Dated May 29, 2009

This was altered slightly a short time later: 

Saj Ahmad is Aerospace/Airline Analyst at Fleetbuzz Editorial. Having a base of operations both within Europe and the Middle East, Mr. Ahmad has accumulated extensive and varied operational experience with various major blue chip airlines and also in the financial services sector. Mr. Ahmad covers aerospace and airline discussion, offering detailed analysis and background. He liaises regularly with senior executives of the Boeing Company. He has vast experience in both aerospace and airline sectors, ranging from passenger operations, airside and landside operations, fleet planning & scheduling, cargo operations and logistics as well as general airport security. Mr. Ahmad also assists numerous Middle East carriers on strategies for growth and provides regular consultations with an array of airlines and executives. [Emphasis added.]
GLG site, June 20, 2009

Still later, Ahmad again slightly altered his GLG Bio:

Saj Ahmad is an Aerospace/Airline Analyst at FBE Aerospace. Based within Europe and the Middle East, he has accumulated extensive and varied operational experience with various major blue chip airlines and also in the financial services sector. He liaises regularly with EADS/Airbus SAS and the Boeing Company. Mr. Ahmad has vast and extensive experience in aerospace and airline sectors, ranging from passenger operations, airside and landside operations, revenue management, fleet planning & scheduling, cargo operations and logistics as well as airport security. Mr. Ahmad offers detailed intelligence, analysis and background and strategic research in the aerospace/airline sectors. He also provides strategies for growth and regular consultations with an array of airlines as well as providing analysis for global media outlets, numerous radio stations and web-based publications, including specialist aerospace periodicals. Mr. Ahmad regularly features for the BBC and other TV media. (Emphasis added.)

GLG site, May 13, 2010

His most recent GLG Bio is once more altered slightly:

Saj Ahmad is Chief Aerospace and Airline Analyst at FBE Aerospace. Based within Europe and the Middle East, he has accumulated extensive and varied operational airline experience and has also worked in the financial services sector. He communicates regularly with EADS/Airbus and the Boeing Company. Mr. Ahmad has a wide range of experience in the aerospace and airline sectors, ranging from passenger operations, airside and landside operations, revenue management, fleet planning & scheduling, cargo operations and logistics as well as airport security. Offering detailed intelligence, analysis and strategic competitive research, he provides analysis and commentary for various media outlets, newspapers, numerous radio stations and web-based publications, including specialist aerospace periodicals. Mr. Ahmad regularly features internationally on aerospace/airline coverage, from the Middle East, US, Asia and Europe and is a frequent contributor to the likes of the BBC and others. (Emphasis added.)

GLG site, January 20, 2011

The Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz Industry Comedy Show

Saj Ahmad's long-running comedy show took yet another episode today with his silly posting, "747 Intercontinental Draws First Blood Over A380 at Air China."

The Chinese flag carrier ordered five airplanes to replace ageing 747-400s and to provide VIP transport for the government. The order, which China said was sharply discounted, is also widely viewed as partial compensation for the long-delayed 787 orders at Air China.

China Southern ordered the A380 long ago. Since all orders have to be approved by the government, the proper headline should be, "Boeing at long last evens the score with the A380."

Watch Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz complain about ILFC GTF order

International Lease Finance Corp. announced a MOU for 100 A320neos, selected the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan for at least 60 of them.

Watch Saj Ahmad complain about and dismiss the order for the GTF. He has nothing good to say about this engine and makes excuses to criticize it. Note that his favorite engine, the LEAP-X, so far hasn't been ordered. (Ahmad has yet another fawning Leap-X article, "Ahead of the Curve.")

Also watch for Ahmad to use this order to criticize the Bombardier CSeries. It doesn't matter that ILFC did NOT order the A319neo (which is heavier than the CSeries and not as economical) but confined the orders to the A320 and A321.

The press release from Airbus:

ILFC selects 100 A320neo Family aircraft

Strong endorsement for the industry’s benchmark eco-efficient single-aisle aircraft

The world’s premier aircraft leasing company, ILFC, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding for 100 A320neo Family aircraft, comprising 75 A320neo and 25 A321neo types. ILFC becomes the first customer for the A321neo, the largest member of the A320neo Family. In a separate agreement, Pratt & Whitney has been selected by ILFC to power at least 60 A320neo Family aircraft.

The A320neo incorporates new more efficient engines and large wing tip devices called, "Sharklets" which together deliver up to 15 percent in fuel savings. This represents some 3,600 tonnes less CO2  per aircraft, per year. In addition, the A320neo provides a double-digit reduction in NOx emissions and reduced engine noise.

In parallel with this order for the A320neo, ILFC will terminate its purchase agreement for ten A380s. “With 104 wide bodies on order and fewer than a dozen single aisles it makes perfect sense to rebalance our order book and position ILFC strategically on the fuel-efficient neo ,” said Henri Courpron, ILFC Chief Executive Officer.

“We are delighted to welcome ILFC as the first lessor to order the A320neo,” said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers. “As an evolution of the highly successful A320,  offering the latest in fuel saving technologies, the A320neo is a natural choice for ILFC. Indeed the A320 Family will continue to be a great asset for both lessors and airlines for the decades to come.”

“The A380 is a long term programme. Over the next twenty years we see a market of over 1,300 passenger aircraft in the very large aircraft segment. The A380 continues to win new customers and many are coming back with repeat orders.” Mr. Leahy added. “This year we’ve already won two new A380 customers and there are more queuing up

Shoot the Dog, Part 1: Saj Ahmad and Fleetbuzz--quoting out of context

Saj Ahmad frequently quotes industry people (although there are problems with how he selectively quotes them and leaves the impression he got the quotes but in reality lifts them from other sources) but he has a history of quoting people out of context.

The most notorious example was Ahamd's "quoting" Pratt & Whitney CEO David Hess as "not impressed" with the Bombardier CSeries.

What Ahmad wrote was:

Pratt & Whitney President David Hess referred to being “disappointed” with low number of CSeries orders, six years after the program was launched – and with a delay on the program inevitable, prospects for the CSeries turning a corner are still a very distant prospect.

What Hess is reported to have said--and it is not even a direct quote--is in the 2010 Reuters article that wrote:

It was only a matter of time before the bleak and harsh reality of the CSeries weakness hit Pratt & Whitney.

Hess said he was disappointed at the surprisingly low number of orders for Bombardier's C-Series aircraft for which Pratt provides the engine.

Orders for the aircraft, which competes with Boeing's 737 and the A320 in the 100- to 149-seat segment, so far have failed to live up to expectations, totaling only about 90.
Bombardier blamed a lack of orders for the plane at the Farnborough Air Show in July on issues related to a support plan for the engine. At the Reuters summit, Hess shrugged off the complaint, calling it a "misunderstanding."

From the transcript of the interview, Hess actually said,

“I think we’re all a little disappointed that we weren’t able to complete the deals to announce orders there (at Farnborough 2009), but I’m not concerned because it’s a great airplane offering operators great economics, which is why there’s so much interest from airline customers.”

 Ahmad not only misrepresented what was actually reported, he misstated (as he always does) the CSeries timeline, saying it was six years from launch. The fact is the CSeries was launched in 2008, not 2004. In an interview with Bloomberg News, Hess said the CSeries is "a great airplane with great economics and it will sell very well."

Saj Ahmad is wrong on the CSeries again and again and again

Bombardier's CSeries has been the target for years of Saj Ahmad's rants that have no bearing to reality. It's time to go down his puffery one-by-one.

The following is from Ahmad's 1 Feb 2011 column slamming the CSeries.


Ahmad wrote: Considering that Bombardier swore blind that it would have the CSeries in service by 2010 (and has failed on that score) and a dubious set of Chinese partners building core components, the recipe for disaster (and delays) is already cooking in the oven. Fact: Ahmad constantly goes back to the original CSeries concept and timeline. This concept was dropped due to poor market reaction. The current CSeries version was launched in 2008 with an EIS of 2013. Ahmad knows this (if he did even a modicum of research) and ignores the facts.

Bombardier dropping an early concept of the CSeries is no different than Boeing dropping the concepts for the Sonic Cruiser, 747-500, 747-600 and 747-X. But Ahmad never talks about the false starts at his favorite company.

Ahmad wrote: Pratt & Whitney is equally glad that its reliance on the CSeries and other poorly selling platforms like the MRJ and MC-21 have been pushed onto the backburner as they tout their GTF engine to prospective A320 customers. Fact: Where the bloody hell does Ahmad have the basis to make this statement? He certainly didn't get it from PW. He's making this up out of thin air.

Ahmad wrote: No longer do they [airlines] have to worry about the inability of the CSeries being able to emulate transcon route....Fact: The CSeries ER had 2,950nm in range, more than enough to serve US trans-continental routes. Ahmad knows this and ignores it, and this makes for a lousy "analyst." Or if he doesn't know this, it makes for a lousy "analyst." Either way, he is wrong, wrong, wrong on the facts.

Ahmad wrote: And with Lufthansa steadfastly refusing to be the first customer.... Fact: Lufthansa's Nico Buchholz, the executive vice president of fleet planning who ordered the CSeries, said he ordered deliveries when he needed the airplane (2014), not for the honour of being first. A 20-minute podcast has Nico in his own words praising the CSeries. But this doesn't fit Ahmad's biased and irrational distaste for the CSeries so he continually ignores the truth.

Ahmad also whinges on and on about how the CSeries can't be stretched because it will need a new wing (so he says). Fact:  Ahmad is no engineer and apparently doesn't bother to talk to anyone who is. The Montreal Gazette interviewed Chet Fuller of Bombardier who says the wing is capable for taking a larger airplane. Once again, Ahmad is wrong.

Fact Checker will return to this topic in the future.

Revealing Saj Ahmad

As noted on other pages, the persona of Saj Ahmad is a mystery. He doesn't tell anyone about his background, his professional bona fides, his previous employers or his client list.

The Montreal Gazette had an interesting article in 2010 that describes in some detail an encounter with Ahmad.